NuScale Power Corporation [SMR] · Equity Underwriting Memo

Catalysts

NuScale Power [SMR] — Catalyst Calendar

⚠️ SUPERSEDED IN PART — 2026-07-29

The position verdict in this document is retired. Under the current framework (references/criteria.md, 2026-07-29) the memo outputs an analysis, not a position. Whether an analysis justifies a position is a question about a particular book, and two books answer it differently.

The Gate block and the Gate 4 expected-return arithmetic below are also superseded, by the named Criteria (each with a type: BINDING or MEASURED, returning PASS / FAIL / INDETERMINATE), the reverse-DCF implied-path test, and a separate 12-month target.

→ Current analysis: NuScale_Criteria_and_Valuation_2026-07-29.md

Everything else here — the research, the evidence, the mechanism work — stands. Residual references to "Watchlist" in the prose below are the historical record of the 2026-07-27 assessment and are left intact deliberately.

Task 6 · Built 2026-07-27 · Spot $8.29 · Position verdict RETIRED 2026-07-29 — this is a monitoring calendar under Catalyst Criteria (MEASURED), not a decision

Every trigger below is checkable — a number crossing a stated threshold, a disclosure appearing, or an event occurring by a date. Thresholds are pulled from the Bull/Base/Bear assumptions in the model's Scenarios tab and from Task 5's gate analysis, not invented here.

Because the position is Watchlist, the trigger columns are framed as "Convert to Short" and "Kill the bearish view" rather than upgrade/downgrade of an existing position.

Dated calendar

Date / window Catalyst Linked to Convert to Short if Kill the bearish view if
2026-08-05 (confirmed) Q2-2026 results & call Gate 1 mechanism; Gate 2 revenue variant Revenue < $3.0m (Street $11.9m) and management does not cut FY26 guidance to the run-rate and the call confirms remaining ENTRA1 milestones are cash-payable Revenue > $8.0m; or management discloses the milestone obligations are payable in equity, staged over delivery, or renegotiated/terminated
2026-08-05 Q2 cash & investments disclosure Liquidity runway (5.9 yrs) Total cash & investments < $930m (burn above the $43m/qtr model) and a new ATM/424B5 is filed within 30 days Cash & investments > $1,000m with quarterly burn < $35m — runway lengthening, not shortening
Aug-2026 → 2026-12-31 TVA definitive power purchase agreement — management guided "by year-end 2026"; ENTRA1 (not NuScale) is the signing party Gates 3, 4, 5 — the single largest bidirectional catalyst (a) 2026-12-31 passes with no binding PPA and no equivalent firm order — the near-term squeeze tail collapses; or (b) a PPA is signed and the 8-K discloses a milestone obligation ≥$800m payable in cash — short into the strength, not ahead of it A PPA is signed and the disclosed NuScale obligation is < $400m, or payable in stock, or staged across 2031-2040
Rolling, bi-monthly FINRA short-interest settlements (mid-month and month-end; published ~8 business days later) Gate 5 crowding Short interest < 12% of float (from 20.77%) and days-to-cover > 4.0 — the crowd has left and the convex tail has thinned Short interest > 25% of float with days-to-cover < 2.0 — the setup has become more squeeze-prone, and the name stays untouchable
~2026-11-05 (est.) Q3-2026 results Gate 2 revenue variant, second datapoint Revenue < $3.0m for a second consecutive quarter and Street FY2027 revenue still > 3× the annualised run-rate Two consecutive quarters above $8m, or a NuScale-direct (non-ENTRA1) firm order booked
Any date New 424B5 / ATM take-down under the S-3ASR filed 2025-08-11 Dilution pillar An equity raise > $300m priced at a > 10% discount — confirms funding stress ahead of the milestone A raise at a premium to market, or a strategic investment at a premium by a utility/IPP
1H-2027 (est.) Motion-to-dismiss ruling, Truedson v. NuScale Power Corp., D. Or. 3:26-cv-00328 Governance/disclosure risk The complaint survives the motion in substantial part — discovery into the ENTRA1 agreement follows Dismissed with prejudice
Ongoing 2026-2027 RoPower Doicesti (Romania) implementation milestones; EXIM ($3bn LOI) / DFC ($1bn LOI) conversions Revenue base case Doicesti slips beyond 2032, or NuScale-recognised revenue from it stays < $10m/yr A firm, funded EPC award to NuScale > $150m — the revenue variant is wrong
Ongoing DOE loan-programme actions for SMR deployment Bull-case risk — Any DOE loan guarantee naming a NuScale project — materially de-risks first-of-a-kind capital cost
Dec-2026 / Jun-2027 Russell and S&P index reconstitutions Positioning Deletion from a widely held index — mechanical selling, and passive lenders recall stock (raises borrow cost) Addition to a broader index — mechanical buying into a crowded short
Any date Strategic approach / take-out Gate 5 event risk — Any credible bid. A debt-free company with the only NRC-certified SMR design and $1.01bn of cash at a $2.02bn EV is a plausible target. This is an uncapped loss event for a short and is a standing reason the vehicle must be defined-risk if ever initiated

Sequencing — how to actually use this

  1. 2026-08-05 is a data-gathering event, not a trading event. The Q1 print missed revenue by 89.9% and the stock did not break; the market has stopped underwriting the revenue line. What matters on this call is the ENTRA1 milestone disclosure — cash vs. stock, and the payment schedule. That single answer moves the central claim of this memo more than any revenue number will.
  2. 2026-12-31 is the real decision date. The TVA PPA question is what makes the name untouchable today. It resolves one of two ways and both are actionable: no deal collapses the squeeze tail; a deal reveals the funding hole and lets the short be initiated into strength rather than ahead of a binary.
  3. The short-interest series is the permission slip. Even a confirmed thesis stays unshortable while 20.8% of the float is short with a 2.28-day cover. Track it every settlement.

Handoff for ongoing maintenance

Do not re-run a full initiation for the events above. Going forward for SMR: